StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Net operating revenues rose 15% year over year to $487.3M and net income increased 35% to $71.7M; diluted EPS was $1.41 following a 3-for-2 stock split effected March 21, 2025 .
• EPS beat Wall Street consensus (Primary EPS) of $1.32; reported diluted EPS $1.41 vs. S&P Global consensus $1.32 (two estimates) — a ~7% beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Strength was broad-based: securities and listed derivatives drove gains; FX/CFD faced spread compression; Payments volumes improved while RPM remained tight .
• Strategic catalysts: definitive agreement to acquire R.J. O’Brien (transformational for derivatives; expected accretive to margins, EPS, ROE, ~$50M cost synergies in 18–24 months; closing anticipated H2 2025) and CME registration for New York precious metals vault .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Broad-based growth across products and segments; net operating revenues up 15% YoY; securities net operating revenues up $32.2M YoY; listed derivatives +$12.1M; physical contracts +$11.8M .
• Metals franchise benefitted from exceptional volatility and market dislocations; Q2 Metals net operating revenues up ~20% YoY with CME-approved vault enhancing integrated offering .
• Management expects RJO deal to be “transformational,” immediately enhancing margins/EPS/ROE; ~$50M cost synergies identified; pro forma EBITDA ~$750M after synergies vs. ~$129M five years ago (“dramatic change in scope and scale”) .

What Went Wrong

• Self-Directed/Retail net operating revenues fell 14% YoY (FX/CFD RPM -34% YoY; product mix skewed to tight-spread indices), segment income down 34%; sequential declines from Q1 record .
• Payments RPM declined 15% YoY; despite ADV +20% YoY, RPM remained tight across corridors; segment income flat .
• Interest expense rose 20% YoY (fixed income repo and securities borrowing growth); short-term financing interest nearly doubled on increased physical precious metals/commodities activity .

Financial Results

Headline Comparison vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Notes: Net Income Margin % is calculated from cited net income and net operating revenues.

Segment Net Operating Revenues (YoY)

Product KPIs and Volumes

Guidance Changes

No formal quantitative revenue/EPS guidance was issued for Q2 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Net income and diluted EPS up, 35% and 29%, respectively, driven by solid performance across a wide range of our products and segments.” — Sean O’Connor .
• “If a period of sustained volatility is ahead of us… this will be yet another positive driver for the continued growth in our business.” — Sean O’Connor .
• “RJO brings an attractive financial profile… expected to enhance our margins, EPS and return on equity… ~$50 million in cost synergies… second half of 2025.” — Sean O’Connor .
• “Interest and fee income… $74.5M… 100bp change in short-term rates would result in ±$28.2M net income or ±$0.57/share annualized.” — William Dunaway .
• “CME approval for our New York-based metals vault… enhancing our vertically integrated offering in metals.” — Sean O’Connor .

Q&A Highlights

• Macro/volatility: Management anticipates higher average volatility over next 12 months due to tariffs, supply chain and inflation dynamics; seeks volatility without extreme dislocation .
• Payments outlook: XPay rebuild enables capacity and volume ramp; spreads remain tight; Bamboo partnership extends LatAm ecosystem; goal to leverage increased capacity into growth .
• Retail FX/CFD: RPM decline reflects normalization from unusually high levels and tight-spread index mix; improvement late in quarter as volatility rose .
• Risk management: Emphasis on discipline and right-sizing client exposures to firm scale; systems performed “flawlessly” during volatility; culture and muscle memory highlighted .
• RJO synergies: Revenue synergies likely significant but will take 12–18 months; cost synergies ~$50M targeted; accretive deal with limited customer overlap .

Estimates Context

• EPS: Reported diluted EPS $1.41 vs. S&P Global Primary EPS consensus $1.32 (two estimates) — a beat; limited coverage indicates low estimate count. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Revenue: S&P Global did not provide quarterly revenue consensus; actual total revenues reported were $36.89B, up 67% YoY, driven by physical commodity flows. Values retrieved from S&P Global for any estimates; revenue actuals per company release .
• Implications: Given EPS beat and mixed product spread dynamics, models may lift securities/listed derivatives assumptions and temper FX/CFD RPM; Payments volumes likely revised up with RPM conservative .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Broad-based YoY strength with EPS beating consensus; securities and listed derivatives momentum offset FX/CFD spread compression — supportive for near-term sentiment .
• The RJO acquisition is a structural catalyst expected to be accretive to margins/EPS/ROE, expanding IB network and client float; cost synergies ~$50M in 18–24 months, closing anticipated H2 2025 .
• Metals vertical is a differentiated asset; CME vault approval and JBR integration position SNEX to monetize volatility and arbitrage dislocations responsibly .
• Payments is reaccelerating on capacity (XPay) and LatAm expansion (Bamboo); monitor RPM normalization vs. volume growth trajectory .
• Interest-rate sensitivity remains material (±$28.2M net income per 100bps); with rates stabilizing, volatility becomes the key driver of activity and spread capture .
• Retail FX/CFD profitability is cyclical and mix-sensitive; expect RPM normalized from prior elevated levels but upside if volatility persists .
• Near-term focus: execution on acquisitions (RJO, Plantureux), sustain securities volumes, manage spread capture in FX/CFD/payments, and maintain disciplined risk management to navigate episodic dislocations .

Citations: Press release/8-K and call transcript content as cited above. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*